Baylor Bears Football: 5 Key Strategies for a Winning Season This Year

As I sit down to analyze the Baylor Bears' upcoming football season, I can't help but reflect on quarterback Blake Shapen's recent comments about the emotional challenges of transitions. "I believe that leaving and saying 'goodbye' is never easy and accepting things is the most painful part," he noted during spring training, and this sentiment perfectly captures where this program stands today. Having followed Baylor football for over a decade, I've seen enough coaching changes and roster turnovers to understand how difficult transitions can be, but I'm genuinely optimistic about what head coach Dave Aranda can accomplish this year if they execute these five key strategies properly.

First and foremost, the Bears must establish offensive consistency early in the season. Last year's statistical drop-off was concerning - Baylor ranked 78th nationally in total offense, averaging just 387 yards per game compared to their 472-yard average during their 2021 championship season. What I've noticed watching their spring practices is that the offensive line needs to gel much faster than last year. They're returning three starters, but the right side needs to develop chemistry quickly. I'm particularly excited about sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen having his first full offseason as the unquestioned starter. His completion percentage of 63.3% last season was respectable, but what impressed me most was his 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference games. If Baylor can establish a balanced attack early - ideally maintaining a 55-45 run-pass split - they'll be positioned much better for the tough Big 12 schedule.

Defensively, I'm convinced the secondary needs to become the team's strength rather than its liability. Last season's pass defense numbers were frankly unacceptable - they allowed 258 passing yards per game, ranking 102nd nationally. Having studied their defensive schemes closely, I believe they need to incorporate more press coverage and reduce the cushion they've been giving receivers. The addition of transfer safety Alfonzo Allen could prove crucial here. What I'd really like to see is defensive coordinator Ron Roberts dialing up more creative blitz packages to disrupt opposing quarterbacks' timing. The Bears only recorded 24 sacks last season, and in today's pass-happy Big 12, that simply won't cut it. I'm betting that if they can increase that number to 35+ this season, we'll see a dramatic improvement in their third-down conversion rate allowed, which currently sits at around 42%.

Special teams improvement might not sound glamorous, but in close games - and Baylor had five games decided by one score last season - it becomes the difference between winning and losing. The Bears' kicking game was inconsistent at best last year, with field goal accuracy hovering around 68%. What I've observed in offseason practices suggests they've been focusing heavily on this aspect, and I'm hopeful we'll see that percentage climb to at least 80% this season. The return game also needs more explosive plays - Baylor averaged just 19.3 yards per kick return last season, which ranked them in the bottom quarter of FBS programs. Given that field position often determines scoring opportunities, improving this single aspect could add 3-5 points per game to their average.

Player development, particularly among the sophomore class, will be crucial for sustained success. Having followed recruiting closely, I'm particularly bullish on the potential of running back Richard Reese, who showed flashes of brilliance last season with his 972 rushing yards. What I'd like to see is his workload increasing from the 15-18 carries per game he averaged last season to 20-22 this year. The receiving corps also needs someone to emerge as a true number one option after losing their top two targets from last season. Based on what I've seen, junior college transfer Armani Winfield could be that guy if he develops quickly.

Finally, the mental aspect of the game - that emotional resilience Shapen referenced - might be the most important factor of all. Transition is inevitable in college football, but championship teams learn to embrace it rather than resist it. What I've noticed about successful Baylor teams of the past is their ability to maintain composure during critical moments. Last season, they lost three games where they held fourth-quarter leads, which tells me the mental toughness needs improvement. The leadership from veterans like linebacker Matt Jones will be instrumental here. If they can develop what I call "clutch gene" - that ability to elevate performance when games are on the line - this team could exceed expectations dramatically.

Looking at their schedule, I count at least eight winnable games if they execute these strategies properly. The early non-conference matchups against Utah and Texas State will tell us a lot about this team's character. What gives me confidence is that Coach Aranda has proven he can develop talent and adjust schemes effectively - remember his brilliant defensive game plan in the 2021 Big 12 Championship. Still, the road won't be easy in what's becoming an increasingly competitive conference. If Baylor can establish offensive rhythm early, shore up the secondary, improve special teams, develop their young talent, and build mental toughness, I believe we're looking at a potential 9-3 regular season. That might sound optimistic to some, but having watched this program evolve, I've learned that sometimes the most painful transitions - those difficult goodbyes Shapen mentioned - ultimately lead to the most rewarding comebacks.